A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
I'm guessing that most Phillies fans took the news of the Cardinals-Blue Jays trade that sent Scott Rolen north of the border with some degree of satisfaction. Rolen, of course, is notorious in Philadelphia for his fights with manager Larry Bowa, and his statements disdain for the organization and the fans on his way out of town in 2002 and periodically thereafter. His gushing delight at playing for St. Louis--or, as he called it, "Heaven"--has long grated on Phillies diehardsl there's more than a little schadenfreude to be enjoyed from the fact that Rolen's relationship with Tony LaRussa went so far south that he's willing to brave the artificial turf of Toronto just to get away.
But it's the other guy in the trade whom I'm thinking about. Troy Glaus isn't the defender Rolen is, but his right-handed power has produced 95 home runs in the last three seasons even as a series of nagging injuries kept Glaus on the sidelines for 70 games over that span. (Yes, he was involved in steroid allegations--but that was during his Angels tenure, which ended in 2004. He's clean now.) Glaus has a reasonable contract--he's owed $24 million for the next two years.
Why weren't the Phillies in on him? I guess it could be argued that they didn't have a match; obviously they had no third baseman to send back, unless Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi has an as-yet unannounced love for Wes Helms. But there could have been a deal with a third team, and I for one think Rolen is a worse health risk going forward than Glaus: his back won't hold up well on that turf, and this is after missing about 170 games over the last three seasons. His contract is also more onerous than the one Toronto is shedding: Rolen is owed: three years, $36 million. That could be a lot of dead money sitting in the trainer's office.
Maybe this is unfair on my part: it's more than possible that Ricciardi figured Rolen's upside was worth the risk, or that the Phillies considered Glaus's health issues and decided he didn't merit serious pursuit. But while Pat Gillick and Ruben Amaro blithely prepare to go into 2008 with the less than formidable Helms/Dobbs/Bruntlett job-share at the hot corner--or ponder whether to ink the out-tastic Pedro Feliz--it's frustrating to see a legit 30-homer solution like Glaus change uniforms without any indication the Phils so much as nibbled.
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Who could the Phils trade that the Jays would want
by Chris R on Jan 15, 2008 1:13 PM EST 0 recs
Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
I think our best bets are Inge and Crede as we head into Spring Training.
I also think that Dobbs has earned another shot, he is young and Helms could bounce back a bit, we will still lead the league in runs, getting Inge or Crede just makes our bench that much better by placing Dobbs there as the Lefty pinch hitter with men on base.
by SirAlden on Jan 15, 2008 2:06 PM EST 0 recs
Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
I guess a Glaus-to-Phillies move would've also produced the benefit of dealing Helms for a reliever and/or pushing a nobody like So Taguchi off the roster.
Do the Phillies even have $13 million available?
Either way, I don't think he's worth it. We don't need more offense. I'd rather see the Phillies either keep that money available for an in-season trade or spend it on another starting pitcher. There are worse ways to spend $10 million than on a 3-year/$30 million deal for Kyle Lohse.
by Baerwcb on Jan 15, 2008 3:45 PM EST 0 recs
Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
As for "not that much better," Glaus is a career 121 OPS+ hitter and is regarded as average or slightly above defensively. Helms and Dobbs are both butchers with the glove; Helms' career OPS+ is 96 (68 last year), and Dobbs is 87 (96 last year). Glaus is superior, and it's not close.
I think the budget and "what could they have dealt?" arguments are totally valid, but it requires near-opaque rose-colored glasses to see Dobbs/Helms as even close to Glaus.
by dajafi on
Jan 15, 2008 6:10 PM EST
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Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
Here's what all of the projections have for the three third basemen (from FanGraphs)...
Greg Dobbs
Bill James: .335/.416 (.751)
CHONE: .328/.409 (.736)
Marcel: .331/.435 (.765)
Wes Helms
Bill James: .334/.430 (.764)
CHONE: .332/.421 (.753)
Marcel: .335/.440 (.775)
Troy Glaus
Bill James: .360/.490 (.850)
CHONE: .364/.490 (.854)
Marcel: .356/.479 (.835)
I agree with you that a .100 difference in OPS is nothing to sneeze at. The gap between Helms/Dobbs and Glaus is bigger than I thought.
I'd still rather see that money spent on pitching, though.
by Baerwcb on Jan 15, 2008 6:48 PM EST 0 recs
Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
The opportunity cost of not getting more pitching help is a legit point too. I'm just not convinced there's a good use for that money currently available. Maybe Lohse; I go back and forth on that one.
by dajafi on
Jan 15, 2008 11:19 PM EST
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Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
by taco pal on
Jan 15, 2008 11:26 PM EST
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Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
I think signing Benson would be a great low-risk, high-reward move, and I can't think of a reason why they wouldn't at least offer him a one-year incentive-laden contract with mutual options.
Bartolo Colon is another low-risk, high-reward type of pitcher the Phillies should be looking at. According to Ruben Amaro, his "overall health" is a concern, despite the guy winning the Cy Young award as recently as 2005.
I will cry if Pat Gillick ends up signing Pedro "71.2% outs" Feliz.
by Baerwcb on Jan 16, 2008 9:04 AM EST 0 recs
Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
on Colon, reportedly several teams, including the Mets, don't think his arm's in good shape. scouts say he hasn't topped 90 in winter ball.
by perfectdepth on
Jan 16, 2008 9:18 AM EST
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Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
I hadn't heard anything about Colon, that certainly is concerning then, if he can't get any velocity on his fastball and it now makes sense why the Phillies have backed off.
Thanks.
by Baerwcb on Jan 16, 2008 9:34 AM EST 0 recs
Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
The rumor this morning though is that they're seriously talking with Lohse again. Presumably that would put the kibosh on Benson.
by dajafi on
Jan 16, 2008 10:00 AM EST
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Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
This is from 2 mailbag's ago on phillies.com
The team's interest has cooled somewhat. General manager Pat Gillick said the organization felt Benson was "still a couple months" away, meaning that it was too early to get a proper gauge on how he was doing in his recovery from right shoulder surgery. He's still a possibility, just not a very likely one, since they've subsequently went in a different direction with Chad Durbin.
by schrifty on Jan 16, 2008 10:54 AM EST 0 recs
Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
"The Phils may send people to watch Kris Benson throw next week. I believe this would be the second time they've observed him, so maybe it's getting serious."
I've never thought that Mandel had really great sources, but Olney's not really plugged into Philly. so who knows.
by perfectdepth on
Jan 16, 2008 11:11 AM EST
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Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
by schrifty on Jan 16, 2008 11:00 AM EST 0 recs
Benson to show Phils his fastball, wife, this week
http://phillies.scout.com/2/720314.html
Actually no mention of Anna, dammit.
by Chris R on Jan 16, 2008 11:10 AM EST 0 recs
Re: Benson to show Phils his fastball, wife, this
this is just flat out wrong. Feliz hit mostly seventh the last two years. his actual (as opposed to theoretical) walk rate lower in the order is worse than higher. and there's quite literally nothing on the face of the earth that could cause Feliz's OBP to go north of .295 or so.
(also, Cincinnati, Texas, and the Mets all had 20+ HR from the 8th spot in the lineup last year, which means that "the only 20-plus home run hitting threat in baseball hitting eighth in the batting order" is not really all that impressive.)
by perfectdepth on
Jan 16, 2008 11:19 AM EST
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Re: Benson to show Phils his fastball, wife, this
That said, it's possible that Feliz would improve his OBP with the Phillies. With him in mind, I looked at some numbers the other night of players' on-base percentages before and after joining the Charlie Manuel-era Phillies, and in a lot of cases this has happened--whether because of an improved walk rate (Rod Barajas), higher average (David Dellucci) or both (Aaron Rowand). I'll probably post that in a couple days.
by dajafi on
Jan 16, 2008 12:38 PM EST
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Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
Sign them now? Silly.
by SirAlden on Jan 17, 2008 6:17 AM EST 0 recs
Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
by Homer on
Jan 17, 2008 9:43 AM EST
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Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
Wouldn't that then have been...Burrell? And a Burrell for Glaus deal, while perhaps tempting during Pat's annual cold months, doesn't really fill any holes without adding another one, does it?
Unless...when exactly was the last time he played 3B? And with Jenkins, Victorino and Werth in the OF....hmm.....
by das411 on Jan 22, 2008 12:19 AM EST 0 recs
Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
by Homer on
Jan 22, 2008 8:23 PM EST
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