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Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies

I wrote yesterday that we'd be playing either an opposite or a clone. As it happens, the Rockies won, and it's hard to imagine a team more similar to the Phils. You've got:

  • Momentum. The Phils went 13-4 in their last 17 games, starting with a 12-4 win over Colorado, to stage arguably the greatest comeback in baseball history and seize the NL East. The Rockies won an almost unfathomable 14 of their last 15 to upend the Padres for the wild card, taking the last with a three-run rally in the bottom of the 13th against perhaps the most accomplished closer in the annals of the game. You can't make this stuff up.

  • Booming Bats. The Phillies and Rockies are 1-2 in runs scored and OPS and tied for first in team on-base percentage. The Phillies have five guys with more than 20 home runs; Colorado has four. The Rockies have five guys with more than 90 RBI; the Phils have four. Both lineups are led by MVP candidates: Jimmy Rollins for the Phils, Matt Holliday for the Rox.

  • One great young starter. They face off in Game One and, presumably, Game Five if need be, and it might well be the case that whoever gets the better of it between Philly's Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.39)  and Colorado's Jeff Francis  (17-9, 4.22) will pitch his team into the NLCS.

  • Ex-closerrama. Just as the Phils feature three former 9th-inning specialists in their bullpen (Gordon, Alfonseca, Mesa) backing up current short man Brett Myers, the Rox have Brian Fuentes, LaTroy Hawkins, and Jorge Julio supporting Manny Corpas.  

  • Rookie saviors. Without the contributions of Kyle Kendrick (10-4, 3.89), the Phillies would be watching this week's action on TV. The same is true of the Rockies with Franklin Morales (3-2, 3.43) and Ubaldo Jiminez (4-4, 4.22)--as the Phils found out when both Rockies rookies defeated them last month.

Check back later for a full Game One preview.

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Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
Jeff Francis versus the Phils this year: 2 starts, 8.1 IP, 20 H, 14 R, 5 BB, 6 SO, 1 HR, 15.12 ERA.

is he really going to get the game 1 and 5 starts? I know he's their number one guy and all, but still...

by perfectdepth on Oct 2, 2007 11:36 AM EDT   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
Definitely. The two guys I fear the most by far are Morales and Jimenez. Will Clint Hurdle be dumb enough to go with veteran experience and start Mark Redman over Morales in Game 2? (Admittedly, Redman's pitched well since joining the Rockies late in the season.)

by taco pal on Oct 2, 2007 11:39 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
That being said, we still need to be concerned about Francis. He is a good pitcher, and his two games vs. the Phillies were just two games.

by taco pal on Oct 2, 2007 11:43 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what Hurdle does with his rotation. he certainly has a lot of options.

by perfectdepth on Oct 2, 2007 11:48 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
One important factor, and we'll talk about this more later, is that Hamels has never faced the Rockies before. This might give him an edge--I'll go back and look at how he did this year in first starts against teams that hadn't seen him before, unless someone else wants to do it. Meanwhile, check out this "report card" on Cole:

http://ie.screentext.net/PRC.aspx?PlayerID=9238

Cool stuff.

by dajafi on Oct 2, 2007 11:39 AM EDT   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
I see from the Official Website that the Phils have announced their Game 2 and 3 starters: Kendrick and Moyer. I'm a little surprised, as I would have guessed Lohse for Game 3.

by taco pal on Oct 2, 2007 11:41 AM EDT   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
I was surprised too, but I bet Manuel likes having Lohse as a bullpen option if he gets into a pinch, especially in Moyer's start. I thought Lohse looked good in relief against the Nats last week (although admittedly, it was the Nats).

finding a replacement starter would put them in a bind, but if it's an elimination game it's probably worth the risk.

by perfectdepth on Oct 2, 2007 11:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
Me too. Moyer at Coors makes me nervous, though it's not like he's been bad at OFJOAB.

Yikes--here are Moyer's career numbers at Coors:

2 starts, 0-2, 9.00, 11 IP, 17 hits, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 HR

by dajafi on Oct 2, 2007 11:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
Hmm, well that's not very encouraging.

If we play in OFJOAB, does that mean they play in TFJOAB?

by taco pal on Oct 2, 2007 11:50 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
Nice one. I guess so, but I don't blame the ballpark so much as the elevation... feel free to take a shot at acronymizing that, and I'll happily use it if it's good.

by dajafi on Oct 2, 2007 12:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
only one of those starts is in the Humidor Era, though. and that was during one of his rough stretches this year; in his next start he gave up 10 runs in 5+ IP at Dodger Stadium, which is nobody's idea of a hitters' park.

Moyer's the kind of guy who can go either way - if his control is poor and he's not getting calls he'll get tagged no matter where he's pitching.

by perfectdepth on Oct 2, 2007 11:53 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
In any event, there are only three days rest between Games 1 and 4, so Hamels might not even be available. In which case, we'd have to use Moyer in one of the Coors games no matter what.

by taco pal on Oct 2, 2007 11:57 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
I'm not feeling good about Moyer's start in this series no matter where it comes. The Rockies have a great patience & power lineup, which is a terrible matchup for him. OK, it's a terrible matchup for anyone, but especially for a guy who needs hitters to be over-aggressive to succeed. Anyway, I'm just hoping for a 10-8 result in that one...

by Seth on Oct 2, 2007 1:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
The most important question might be: who's umping that game?

by taco pal on Oct 2, 2007 1:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
Good point. When Moyer's getting calls low and away to righties (as he was on Sunday, sometimes to an almost unfair degree), he's a completely different pitcher.

by Seth on Oct 2, 2007 1:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
I am more concerned about his breaking pitches.  They say (though, I have no real idea if it is true) that breaking balls don't break as easily in the air up there.  Moyer and flat pitches = disaster.

by jonk on Oct 2, 2007 8:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
I was at the Rockies/Padres game last night and was shocked at how loud the Rockies fans were.  Hadn't seen anything like that except for a Broncos playoff game.  

Will be at Game 3 Saturday night with my Phillies gear in full view.  Can't wait!

by PhillyfaninDenver on Oct 2, 2007 12:50 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Take the Over: Rockies vs. Phillies
Anyone else looking forward to the second crack the Phils' offense will have at Ubaldo?

by das411 on Oct 3, 2007 1:39 AM EDT   0 recs

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